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Excellent insight and analysis!
I've gotten private DM's on Twitter and a few emails regarding this posting. I'd love to continue the conversation.
I would only add that there are incredibly difficult run-time challenges as you begin to patch the platform ecosystem components together and create massively parallel distributed systems. The challenges increase exponentially if your platform is optimizing in realtime (under 250ms).
To paraphrase your post, successful execution relies upon much more than just building a technology platform. It also encompasses the process innovation to create optimal work flows as well as the analytic support around the technology... I couldnt agree more.
This is what I wrote about in May, http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Artic...
It seems to me that there are a lot of people in the industry right now talking about the same thing and trying to tell a similar story. Building an inventory aggregation platform is one thing, actually being capable of successfully executing a business around it is a very different thing. Thats the part that nobody talks about. Its about the "how", not the "if"...
I think you're right that performance display becomes a radically separate category from 'big branding experiences' when the exchanges finally give you single-channel access to enough inventory that display campaigns can be automated. Teracent et al are trying to make that automation happen yesterday, but I think their fortunes are tied to the exchanges'.
The fortunes of publishers too, maybe. At-scale display exchanges + campaign automation --> cut out the labor costs historically associated with running display successfully --> more buyers can afford display campaigns --> upward price pressure.